The ideas and point of view expressed in the following analysis is that of me alone and does not necessarily represent the opinion of The Nats Report at large or any of its other contributors.
Away we go…
If you’ve found this blog, you’re probably in some slight way interested in baseball. Thusly, you’ve probably heard the name Bryce Harper. It wasn’t so long ago that Bryce was profiled on the cover of Sports Illustrated, had an entire story on him on E:60, and was generally viewed as the consensus #1 pick in this year’s upcoming MLB draft. I personally was never on the bandwagon and in the past few weeks, I’ve seen a small minority of fans hopping off. I’m not saying he’s not a phenomenal talent; I’m saying that he’s going to be a project.
For Mr. Harper to live up to the sort of hype he’s generating, he’s going to have to become not just one of the most powerful hitters in the game, but one of the most complete hitters. Becoming Adam Dunn would be a letdown (yes, that’s how high the expectations are). Of today’s hitter’s there are a select few who numbers he would have to match to be deemed worthy of the hype. A-Rod, Manny, and Pujols are about the only names that come to my mind.
Just this past week, Mr. Harper hit his first home run for his junior college team, the Southern Nevada Coyotes. This is the first time I had seen him swing a bat since those ridiculous home run derby YouTube videos. Back then he was swinging for the fences against batting practice fastballs. Understandably, his HRD mechanics would never work against live professional pitching. So I was saddened to see that his HR swing over the weekend still contained many elements of his HRD swings.
Below, I compare his HR this last weekend to one of vintage Manny. I chose Manny because he hits for a better average than ARod and though Pujols might just be the greatest hitter ever, his swing is incredibly unique and probably wouldn’t work for most players.
Stance:
Both Bryce and Manny have good athletic starting positions. Bryce holds his bat a little higher a la Cal Ripken Jr. but both are fine places to start your swing from.
Trigger:
It’s at this point where Bryce’s swing starts to break down. He does two things here. First he buckles his knee inwards, but leaves his front toe in place. This twists his leg inside. Notice how the sole of his shoe is now facing the pitcher. The second thing he does is bring the bat down and in. To me, both of these moves accomplish the same few things. They help load up his left side, which generates power. They also lengthen his swing. To swing the bat he’s going to need to not only re-plant his leg but twist it back as well. He’s also going to need to reverse the momentum of his bat. This is in contrast to Manny who simply lifts his front leg straight up and slightly back, but no twisting. This is a very repeatable motion. Notice the bat stays almost stationary, coming off his shoulder slightly. Simply put, he doesn’t need to play catch-up to get the bat around.
Start of the Swing:
Notice here that Bryce has re-planted his leg and gotten his foot twisted back around. This has taken some time though and he’s already launched his hips toward the pitcher. Go back and look at his starting stance and notice that his crotch (don’t snicker, we’re not in middle school anymore) is lined up directly over the front of the plate. In the above fram, you’ll see that he’s slid his lower body at least 6 inches forward. Not only his hips are already moving toward the mound but the bat is still wrapped around his head. He’s not in sync. Manny his simply replanted his foot and begun to move the bat around. This, and his hips have rotated back to relatively the same position as his starting stance, no sliding forward.
Swing (continued):
At this point, Bryce’s athleticism has made up most of the ground he lost with his trigger position, but not all of it. His shoulders are still lagging behind his hips. Notice how his head is still pointing at the ground about 5-6 ft. out in front of the plate. He’s also slid his hips even further towards the mound. Manny has squared his shoulders and is looking straight out towards the mound.
Contact:
Both guys are in the “Power V” here. Bryce has gotten his shoulders around in time to make contact. While he got around this time, here’s to guessing that it’s going to be harder to get around on professional pitching than on a freshman at Arizona Western JuCo. Also, he’s now lifted his back leg. This is product of him having to stop all that forward momentum he generated by sliding his hips forward. Manny on the other hand, looks nice and balanced, weight transferred to the front foot but not out of control.
Follow -through:
Both Bryce and Manny do a good job of keeping their head in after impact. No complaints here.
Finish:
This is actually the one place where I prefer Bryce’s swing to Manny’s. Bryce finishes with both hands on the bat rotating all the way through the swing. Manny stops his rotation and takes one hand off. While some would say the ball at this point has already been hit and the finish doesn’t really matter, I don’t see it that way. A swing goes from stance to finish. To get the middle right you have to start and end right. Oddly enough, Bryce has a great start and finish. He’s just gets a little lost in between.
Conclusion:
Bryce Harper has made his name/legend based on gigantic home runs hit off of what is essentially pitchers 3-4 years removed from little league. Thus, his swing is built on power and nothing else. It’s going to be hard to consistently hit professional pitching with his swing in the current state. You can see that the physical tools are there, but he’s got a long way to go to become a professional hitter. From all the interviews I’ve seen, he’s got that Jordan-esque “I’m not going to let anybody beat me in anything, ever!” In fact, I’m probably going to get my tires slashed next week. That’s just the way he/Jordan rolls.
The real important question, should the Nationals pick Bryce Harper 1st in the 2010 MLB Draft?
No. Where does he project in the team, nowhere. He’s currently listed as C-IF. We have no needs at those spots at this time. As much as many Nats fans would hate to admit it. The need for this team is the same as it has been since the franchise came to Washington…starting pitching. You can never have enough.
Until next time…Adios Muchachos!
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