Up is Down, and Down is Up

It’s been a bit, and I don’t care. What I do care about is that the Nationals are above .500 for the first time in almost 2 years. If that doesn’t blow your mind, I’m not sure what will. What I can say is that the most impressive thing about the Nats’ record at this point in the season is they aren’t playing good baseball. Aside from 2 or 3 games, the pitching has been awful, and the hitting has, until recently, died when the starter was pulled. They also played the Phillies in a home and away series, and they’re still alive. This is all we could ask for.

Again, in spite of their record, many players haven’t gotten going, and some have overperformed. DId anyone seriously expect Ivan Rodriguez to be hitting .419 and slugging .581? If you say you did, you’re a liar. Willingham is hitting .120 points higher than his career average. Our team leader in strikeouts? TYLER CLIPPARD.

For the guys who are stinkin’ up the place despite the Nationals overachivement, here’s a look. Adam Dunn, .156 avg with 2 rbi. Nyjer Morgan, .220 avg (his OBP is okay). Everyday second baseman, Adam Kennedy? .281 OBP. Pitching? Don’t get me started. Here are the guys with ERAs over 5: Mock, Walker, Olsen, Lannan, Burnett, Batista, Bruney, Marquis, Bergmann, and Stammen. Wow.

Yet. Yet. 6-5. If that doesn’t make you more SBF than Capital Pun., check your pulse.

Oh, there are other things. Nats bloggers have been granted credentials to all Nats home games, and some pretty serious access. Sigh, makes me wish I was more dedicated and more…supportive. Not for the access, but for the free tickets. If you’re reading this Nationals employee (you’re not), I can be censored with gifts of tickets.

Best Day of the Year

Without a doubt, my favorite day of the year is Opening Day.  Since I was a senior in High School and had dominion in such matters, I would skip school or work and watch baseball all day.  Tomorrow, I continue my legacy of such truancy with a half day at work followed by catching the Nationals home opener.

I know we’ve been silent here for awhile, but the season starts, and I no longer have to think about the last spot in the bullpen, or if Eric Bruntlett or Alberto Gonzalez would make the team (It was the AG).  Kyle and I will both be in attendance with our women, and I’d expect some pictures, a recap, and some major heavy duty twittering.  You’ll most likely be elsewhere, but come swing by here when you’re done.

Alright, Now I'm Pissed

Blah, blah, blah.  Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman, I like you guys.  You’re the two best players on this team.

However, shut up.  Your quotes today about how “no one cares about the record” and “a lot of these guys won’t be on the team” and “wah wah ahhh wah spin spin”, have pissed me off.

Guess what fellas?  You aren’t playing the starting 9 for the WS Champs every day.  You are playing other teams mix of starters and scrubs, and they’re owning you.  Every day, up and down, complete ownage.  We’ve culled the chaff at this point, mostly.  You have few excuses left.  Tonight, other than Left and Center, and the unfortunately less likely to start Ian Desmond at short, you’ve got your opening day lineup.  What happened?  You got beat.  Your starters had three hits.

I’ll give you D Lowe as an excuse.  Mike Dunn may be a handy player too.  Everyone else? Nope.  Not buying what you’re selling.

Its time to win an occasional game, folks.  If you flipped a coin 12 times, its gotta come up heads once.  Right?

There were brighter spots tonight, but not too many.  Garrett Mock rebounded from a rough start to settle in.  I’ll take what he gave tonight.  Tyler Walker didn’t explode.  Martis had his best outing of the Spring, but it still won’t save him from Syracuse.  I continue to like Pudge in the field, and he will occasionally chip in with the bat.  But the bad side?  Let’s count it down.

As mentioned previously, the bats were ice cold for the starters.  Let’s pick up the pitcher, fellas.  Matt Capps has forgotten what a zero looks like, as yet another gopher ball jumps the wall on him.  Drew Storen is a human being.  Glad to know that.  2/3 of your starting outfield wouldn’t hit the ocean if they fell out of a boat right now.  This may be the result of handing out positions to players whom it would be charitable to call “accomplished”.

Let’s get it together.  Let’s not strangle the optimism out of the newly hopefully fanbase so soon, and show that the team can be something other than embarrassing.  Starting….tomorrow?

Spring Training is Meaningless

Repeat that phrase.  Know it.  Love it.  Need it.

After listening t0 some real clunkers this week, I’m willing to wipe the slate clean.  For tomorrow comes the ointment, the salve, the band aid.  Tomorrow has the ability to mentally wipe this past week from the minds of fans who have thus far been disappointed by amateurish pitching and the lack of fundamental defense.  Steven Strasburg has the weight of the world on his shoulders, and tomorrow, all eyes will be on him.

With these expectations, you would do well to examine the potential outcomes.

1) 3 ip, 0 hits, 5 k.

This is the dream scenario.  In this dream scenario, the Nats give SS 6 runs of support early, and the team coasts to a shut out victory.  Storen would also give another 1-2-3 performance.

2) 2 ip, 3 hits, 1 run, 1 ER, 2 K

This is the likely scenario as far as I’m concerned.  I know the stuff he has, but I also know that the pressure could crush him, and that major leaguers are good.  Even this line would still overshadow the rest of the staff, aside from Mock, Martin, and Chico.

3) 1 ip, 50 pitches thrown, 4 runs, 3 ER, 0 K, 1 detached arm

This shouldn’t happen.  It could.  I can tell you that if it does, the world will end (at least on South Capitol Street).  This blog will also melt, causing the internet to flood.  So if the above happens, avoid the internet.  Slippery when wet.

Tomorrow, we’ll get back on the JJOTD train, which I’m sure you’ve missed.  Also, we’ll recap Strasburg’s debut, and hopefully be talking about the Nats’ first win.  This week, we’ll also look at who we think should get cut first.  So, look forward to that.

Why I'm a Nats Fan (And Not So Much A Yankee Fan Anymore)

Disclaimer: The title of this post should give you an idea where I’m going with this.  I will try to avoid the saccharine sentimentality inherent in such a topic, but be patient.  I thought it mildly interesting. Thanks for indulging.  Or, conversely, I understand you not reading this whole thing.

I, like a large number of people my age (25), grew up a Yankees fan.  The allure of being able to see the team you like on TV a lot was key, but to say that success wasn’t a prime reason for my fandom would be a lie.  Unlike your run of the mill Washington dwelling Cowboys fan, I at least had some minor credibility.  My parents had grown up Yankee fans and my entire family lives outside of Manhattan.  Does this make me a Legitimate Out Of Town Fan?  Maybe not, but for the sake of argument, we’ll say it did.

I grew up learning about the Yankee players of the past, idolizing their great players of that mid and late 1990s, and deifying players that were for all intents and purposes, pretty average.  Paul O’Neill comes to mind.

Anyway, fast forward to my bedroom (ohhh yeahh) this October.  As I watched A Rod run across the diamond towards Rivera and Teix, I felt…empty.  Every championship prior to this, and every crucial Red Sox game felt to me like a major life event, a “I’ll always remember where I was when…” moment.  This last one felt like a fulfilled prophecy, but not a cool, futuristic one.  A “If it snows, WMATA will suck” forgone conclusion-type prophecy.

This is a long way of setting up a conversation I had last night.  I’m in a class with EJ Fagan, of The Yankee U, and we were talking on the way out of class.  I mentioned that I write about the Nationals, or at least did so with a lot more frequency in the past.  His response was “There just isn’t a lot to write about for the Nationals.”

He meant nothing malicious and surely didn’t even think that I’d be writing anything about that conversation.  But, on the way home, I started thinking about the differing perspectives of a dyed in the wool Yankees fan ACTUALLY from NY, and a kid who liked the Yankees for a few reasons (none of them really compelling) who didn’t have a local team to follow.

But now I do.  And they have been really bad.  They are basically the bizarro Yankees.  But after spending 15 years reading and watching everything Yankees related, I think I just don’t care anymore.  There are some sentimental ties with players that are still on the team, and with my Dad, who is still a dedicated Yankee fan.  But I was thinking today about the Yankees chances, and I realized that it was a foregone conclusion in my mind that they were going to win the AL East.  And I realized what almost every other baseball fan has discovered way sooner than me; If you expect victory, then what’s the damn point?

I’ve fallen for the Nationals.  I care about their A level prospects that can hit the ball a mile, but have the hitting eye of Ted Williams (Now. not when he was alive and hitting .400.  But now, when said eyes are sitting on a can of tuna.  Listen, I know that was a confusing metaphor, but I really wanted to bring up the Tuna can thing).  I think the rotation debates with the young Nationals are infinitely more exciting than “Which All Star can we pick up to be our 4th starter?”.  It’s like all of the arguments I’ve had with other team’s fans over the years that I’ve braved and attempted to disprove, have all seeped into my skull and caused me to think.

Being a Nationals fan is the antithesis of being a Yankees fan.  As a Nationals fan, you can’t assume that your team’s owners will spend every dollar possible to make your team win games.  You won’t have the tacit respect of some baseball fans who think that maybe it would be cool to win sometimes, and won’t have the adulation of every media outlet.  You won’t see your games on national television, but will get to endure countless “Natinals” comments, “You Dead Dawg” jokes, and general condescension from almost every other team’s fanbase.

But in the end, it’s worth it.  My fandom is pure, and any eventual victories will actually mean something.  Whenever the day comes, and I can bet the Yankees will win 2 or 3 more championships before the Nationals make it to the Series, I do know one thing.

When I see the Nationals win something, I won’t sit there feeling nothing.

My Lyin Eyes

First off, to those of you with a significant other, Happy Valentine’s Day!  Don’t say anything stupid that will ruin your night.  To those of you who are single today, Happy Sunday!  Go watch some Olympics!

I know this is early to be apologizing for lack of activity, but it’s been a while since we’ve had this blog operational, and its hard to keep it up.  Once Spring Training picks up, it should be a little easier.  We know there’s enough to read out there without listening to three guys with no access talk, but hey, we’re nice.

There has been a bunch of almost news since Shawn Estes signed a minor league deal.  We may sign Kris Benson. The Adam Kennedy move is done, with no 40 man roster move announced.  The done deal-not done deal-maybe near done deal with Chien Ming Wang has been discussed and a resolution should come sometime this next week.  Pitchers and Catchers report this week, and with that will come a lot more news.

But this post is about a phenomenon all too familiar with baseball fans.

I’m sure this has happened to you.  You go to a game, and you check who the starting pitchers will be, and make a funny face when you see its a battle of number 5 pitchers.  You console yourself in thinking, “Well, I guess that means we’ll see some runs.”  This particular scenario played out May 2nd, 2009.  I went to see the Nats face the Pujols-less Cardinals, and was of course surrounded by overfed, and volume immodulated St Lucians.  Shairon Maris was on the hill, and to that point he was 2-0, but many were unimpressed.  All I knew about him was that he had pitched a 7 inning no-hitter for Netherlands in the WBC 2006.

If for some reason you remember that game, you’d remember that it was insanely fast.  Like, I think my fiance was watching a tv show, and I was home before it finished.  But the take away from watching Martis throw a 5 hit 1 run complete game against the Cards made me a fan.  He has 6 k’s and no walks, which are considered his main vice.  Cody Rasmus is a bomb about 15 feet to my right in my LF Box seat, whereupon a flood of beer and flying food crumbs showered my neighbors.

It was also the game in which Austin Kearns hit a triple.  You may remember this, because it was rare.  Because Austin Kearns was awful last year.  Also, Adam Dunn hit one into space.  I think it may be a threat to the Space Station, but if it breaks something, they’ll just fix it.  Anyway, back to Shairon.  110 pitches, 79 strikes.  A picture of efficiency, and perfection.

Because of this game, I want Martis to make the team out of spring training.  I know he has a crazy BB/9 rate, I know he has no real big league pitch aside from his change up, and I know that his chances are slim.  But the point is, its amazing what a small sample size and being an eyewitness will do.  I mean, I went home and bought his rookie card!  That aside, the competition for spots 4 and 5 will be tough, and will be undoubtedly the main Spring Training storyline this spring.

The "Chosen One" Goes Under the Microscope

The ideas and point of view expressed in the following analysis is that of me alone and does not necessarily represent the opinion of The Nats Report at large or any of its other contributors.

Away we go…

If you’ve found this blog, you’re probably in some slight way interested in baseball.  Thusly, you’ve probably heard the name Bryce Harper.  It wasn’t so long ago that Bryce was profiled on the cover of Sports Illustrated, had an entire story on him on E:60, and was generally viewed as the consensus #1 pick in this year’s upcoming MLB draft.  I personally was never on the bandwagon and in the past few weeks, I’ve seen a small minority of fans hopping off.  I’m not saying he’s not a phenomenal talent; I’m saying that he’s going to be a project.

For Mr. Harper to live up to the sort of hype he’s generating, he’s going to have to become not just one of the most powerful hitters in the game, but one of the most complete hitters.  Becoming Adam Dunn would be a letdown (yes, that’s how high the expectations are).  Of today’s hitter’s there are a select few who numbers he would have to match to be deemed worthy of the hype.  A-Rod, Manny, and Pujols are about the only names that come to my mind.

Just this past week, Mr. Harper hit his first home run for his junior college team, the Southern Nevada Coyotes.  This is the first time I had seen him swing a bat since those ridiculous home run derby YouTube videos.  Back then he was swinging for the fences against batting practice fastballs.  Understandably, his HRD mechanics would never work against live professional pitching.  So I was saddened to see that his HR swing over the weekend still contained many elements of his HRD swings.

Below, I compare his HR this last weekend to one of vintage Manny.  I chose Manny because he hits for a better average than ARod and though Pujols might just be the greatest hitter ever, his swing is incredibly unique and probably wouldn’t work for most players.

Stance:

Both Bryce and Manny have good athletic starting positions.  Bryce holds his bat a little higher a la Cal Ripken Jr. but both are fine places to start your swing from.

Trigger:

It’s at this point where Bryce’s swing starts to break down.  He does two things here.  First he buckles his knee inwards, but leaves his front toe in place.  This twists his leg inside.  Notice how the sole of his shoe is now facing the pitcher.  The second thing he does is bring the bat down and in.  To me, both of these moves accomplish the same few things.  They help load up his left side, which generates power.  They also lengthen his swing.   To swing the bat he’s going to need to not only re-plant his leg but twist it back as well.  He’s also going to need to reverse the momentum of his bat.  This is in contrast to Manny who simply lifts his front leg straight up and slightly back, but no twisting.  This is a very repeatable motion.  Notice the bat stays almost stationary, coming off his shoulder slightly.  Simply put, he doesn’t need to play catch-up to get the bat around.

Start of the Swing:

Notice here that Bryce has re-planted his leg and gotten his foot twisted back around.  This has taken some time though and he’s already launched his hips toward the pitcher.  Go back and look at his starting stance and notice that his crotch (don’t snicker, we’re not in middle school anymore) is lined up directly over the front of the plate.  In the above fram, you’ll see that he’s slid his lower body at least 6 inches forward.  Not only  his hips are already moving toward the mound but the bat is still wrapped around his head.  He’s not in sync.  Manny his simply replanted his foot and begun to move the bat around.  This, and his hips have rotated back to relatively the same position as his starting stance, no sliding forward.

Swing (continued):

At this point, Bryce’s athleticism has made up most of the ground he lost with his trigger position, but not all of it.  His shoulders are still lagging behind his hips.  Notice how his head is still pointing at the ground about 5-6 ft. out in front of the plate.  He’s also slid his hips even further towards the mound.  Manny has squared his shoulders and is looking straight out towards the mound.

Contact:

Both guys are in the “Power V” here.  Bryce has gotten his shoulders around in time to make contact.  While he got around this time, here’s to guessing that it’s going to be harder to get around on professional pitching than on a freshman at Arizona Western JuCo.  Also, he’s now lifted his back leg.  This is product of him having to stop all that forward momentum he generated by sliding his hips forward.  Manny on the other hand, looks nice and balanced, weight transferred to the front foot but not out of control.

Follow -through:

Both Bryce and Manny do a good job of keeping their head in after impact.  No complaints here.

Finish:

This is actually the one place where I prefer Bryce’s swing to Manny’s.  Bryce finishes with both hands on the bat rotating all the way through the swing.  Manny stops his rotation and takes one hand off.  While some would say the ball at this point has already been hit and the finish doesn’t really matter, I don’t see it that way.  A swing goes from stance to finish.  To get the middle right you have to start and end right.  Oddly enough, Bryce has a great start and finish.  He’s just gets a little lost in between.

Conclusion:

Bryce Harper has made his name/legend based on gigantic home runs hit off of what is essentially pitchers 3-4 years removed from little league.  Thus, his swing is built on power and nothing else.  It’s going to be hard to consistently hit professional pitching with his swing in the current state.  You can see that the physical tools are there, but he’s got a long way to go to become a professional hitter.  From all the interviews I’ve seen, he’s got that Jordan-esque “I’m not going to let anybody beat me in anything, ever!”  In fact, I’m probably going to get my tires slashed next week.  That’s just the way he/Jordan rolls.

The real important question, should the Nationals pick Bryce Harper 1st in the 2010 MLB Draft?

No.  Where does he project in the team, nowhere.  He’s currently listed as C-IF.  We have no needs at those spots at this time.  As much as many Nats fans would hate to admit it.  The need for this team is the same as it has been since the franchise came to Washington…starting pitching.  You can never have enough.

Until next time…Adios Muchachos!